Good Afternoon. The best story of the week comes via Michael Bamberger at Golf Mag. It details how Bryson DeChambeau, in cahoots with a new business advisor, told LA Golf that he wants to see his ownership stake go from 2% to a whopping 51% majority. LA Golf said, “nah”.
3 Types Of Pitch Shots For Different Scenarios On The Course
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Playing 18 at Tobacco Road
If you’re on the east coast, and staring out your window looking at the frozen tundra outside, this video may help take you to a different place mentally for a little while.
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Preview & Picks: Cognizant Classic
The PGA TOUR has a scheduling problem.
Put yourself in Cognizant’s shoes for a second. You spend millions to sponsor a tournament… then look up and see the field.
It’s thin. And the week of the event, your top three betting favorites - Adam Scott, Ben Griffin, and Jacob Bridgeman - all withdraw. Now you’ve got one player inside the top 30 in the world rankings.
You’d probably start asking questions. Like…
Why is our tournament not generating any interest?
Well, maybe because your partner, the PGA TOUR, decided to squeeze you in the middle of four Signature Events.
The purses in those are roughly 4x bigger. They matter more. The incentives are obvious.
As the great and powerful Charlie Munger put it: “Show me the incentive, and I’ll show you the outcome.”
In its response to LIV, the PGA TOUR leaned hard into the Signature Events model.
That means the best players only want to compete in Signature Events, and regular events are left fighting uphill for star power.
It didn’t take Honda long to figure that out. They stepped aside because the juice wasn’t worth the squeeze.
A little surprising Cognizant stepped in - maybe they got a discount. After all, in these situations, it’s usually us fans who end up holding the short end of the stick.
That said, it’s not all bad! Fan favorites Brooks Koepka, Joel Dahmen, Shane Lowry, and Max Homa are competing this week.
Wide-open fields also create opportunity. Long shots can win, and that’s fun in its own way.
Seven of the last eight champions at PGA National opened at +3000 or longer.
And with the forecast calling for wind, the Bear Trap could get interesting.
Something to keep in mind.
Field Notes
Ball strikers have the edge – PGA National rates high in Driving Distance and Approach play, so players who gain strokes off the tee (with length) and dial in their irons should create the most birdie chances.
Distance matters more than accuracy – Driving Accuracy grades out more neutral, suggesting you don’t need to be ultra-straight, but you do need to be long enough to take advantage of scoring opportunities.
It’s less of a short-game contest – Around-the-Green and Putting both rate below the tee-to-green categories, meaning elite iron players can separate here even if they aren’t scrambling wizards.
By the way, if you’re interested in the business side of golf, and want to learn more, there were two great articles this week that touched on the conundrum that the TOUR has put itself in.
The Details
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How To Watch
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PGA TOUR LIVE is available exclusively on ESPN+ and consists of four streams.
Weekly Bets: Genesis Invitational
We’ve partnered with Keith Stewart at Read The Line to share his weekly golf betting picks with the Caddyshanks crew. If you’re the type who enjoys breaking down matchups, spotting trends, and hunting for value, you’ll feel right at home in the RTL community. Join Here.
Keith Stewart’s Picks
Nicolai Højgaard (+2200 DraftKings)
Nicolai Højgaard comes into the Cognizant Classic displaying amazing form. Højgaard ‘s T2G talent has been on fire since mid-October. Nicolai has five top 15 finishes in his last seven events! Third place at Phoenix, Højgaard’s putter has been hot. At Farmers, he gained a couple of strokes and almost three with the flatstick at TPC Scottsdale. In a weak field, only Gerard is better T2G than Nicolai, but Højgaard has the putter going, and that’s why he will win.
Seamus Power (+7000 Caesars)
Not many people are talking about Seamus Power. That’s probably because they have not looked at the weekend forecast. It is going to get windy and wet. Power’s ability to flight his irons and putt in challenging conditions makes him a sneaky favorite to climb the Cognizant leaderboard. A notoriously great mid-iron and wedge player, Seamus has gained on approach in seven of his last eight events. Throw in four straight positive starts with the putter, and we have two complementary skills that work well at PGA National.
Caddyshanks Picks
Aaron Rai (+3300 Fanduel)
It may be my own personal bias, but I tend to favor European guys when the weather is choppy. Rai played mostly solid last week at Riv, but fell apart with a 76 in the final round and finished T28. He’s a great ball-striker, who can play in the wind, against a much weaker field than he faced last week.
Billy Horschel (+7500 Fanduel)
There are several players in the field this week who could use an “I’m back” type of win; Billy Horschel, Brooks Koepka, Max Homa, and Will Zalatoris being the most notable on that list. With such a wide open field, I don’t hate spraying the board, but Billy has a solid history at PGA National and the best value of the bunch.
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Shots Heard Round The World
That’s A Wrap…
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Until next time,
Caddyshanks team.
